The Territory’s Population: Research insights on current and future changes

The Territory’s Population: Research insights on current and future changes

A Demography and Growth Planning 

research seminar

Wednesday 26 October
Charles Darwin Centre, Darwin

Researchers (L-R): Huw Brokensha; Andrew Taylor; Tom Wilson; Paul Peters; Dean Carson; Lisbeth Harbo

Seminar overview

The Territory’s population continues to change in a dynamic fashion with pre-election attention given to finding ways to address our volatile and spatially disparate rates of growth. After exceeding 2.5% p.a. growth in 2007-2010, growth has stagnated and we are losing national population share. Importantly, recent changes in compositions and sources of migration flows will have long-term demographic and economic implications for the Territory. In this seminar we provide research insights on the causes and consequences of current and likely future changes in the Territory’s population. This seminar draws on our national and international work program. It includes insights from three international guest speakers engaged in addressing population issues in Canada and the north of Europe through applied research. Our national work on developing robust and accurate population projection models emphasises the need to understand our future demography for planning, and equally how difficult this task is.

Presentations

1. Andrew Taylor (Northern Institute) – Introduction and three key population issues for the Territory 

2. Dean Carson (Northern Institute and international adjunct) – Population change in sparsely populated areas: International comparisons 

3. Huw Brokensha (Northern Institute) – Exploring the accuracy of sub-national population forecasts 

4. Paul Peters (University of New Brunswick, Canada) – Agent Based Demographic Modelling for Canadian populations 

5. Tom Wilson (Northern Institute) – Scenarios of the NTs future population

6. Lisbeth Harbo (Nordic Centre for Spatial Development, Sweden) – Change and challenges for small settlements in the north 

Demography North

Settlements at the Edge book launch

BOOK LAUNCH

Please join us to celebrate the launch of ‘Settlements at the Edge’ with a delicious morning tea at the beautiful Northern Editions gallery, ground floor of the CDU Waterfront campus.  The launch includes a chaired panel session at which editors and authors will discuss or debate key themes in the book. Attendees are encouraged to ask questions and participate in discussions.

About the book:

Settlements at the Edge examines the evolution, characteristics, functions and shifting economic basis of settlements in sparsely populated areas of developed nations. With a focus on demographic change, the book features theoretical and applied cases which explore the interface between demography, economy, well-being and the environment.

Edited by Northern Institute researchers Andrew Taylor & Dean Carson + Prescott C. Ensign, Lee Huskey, Rasmus Ole Rasmussen, Gertrude Saxinger.

DATE:             Thursday 27 October 2016

TIME:               10.30am – 12 noon

VENUE:            CDU Waterfront Campus

                        21 Kitchener Drive, Darwin

RSVP:               www.cdu.edu.au/northern-institute or 8946 7468 (for catering/seating purposes)

Visit event page https://www.cdu.edu.au/northern-institute/Settlements-at-the-Edge

PLEASE SHARE - FREE EVENT – OPEN TO THE PUBLIC – STAFF & STUDENTS WELCOME – PLEASE JOIN US 

Demography North

Northern Institute researchers to present at 2016 Australian Population Association Conference

The Australian Population Association (APA) presents the 18th Biennial National Conference between Tuesday 29 November and Friday 2 December 2016, Mecure Sydney.

For full details of the conference, the program and registration details see: https://absoluteevents.eventsair.com/QuickEventWebsitePortal/apa2016/web

Northern Institute Researcher Presentations:

Lessons from past substate population projections

Tom Wilson, Principal Research Fellow, Charles Darwin University

Co-Author          Huw Brokensha

Affiliations: Charles Darwin University

Co-Author          Francisco Rowe

Affiliations: University of Liverpool

Wednesday, November 30, 2016 3:00 PM - 3:30 PM

Abstract 

Local and regional population projections are used for a wide variety of planning, policy formulation, and service delivery activities. But not enough is known about the errors of such projections, particularly over the longer-term (20 years or more). Understanding past errors is valuable for both projection producers and users. This paper evaluates the forecast accuracy of past substate population projections published by State and Territory Governments over the last 30 years. It seeks to establish the extent and patterns of forecast error, whether there have been problems with data and methods which could be rectified in future, and whether error patterns are sufficiently reliable to inform prediction intervals for current projections. Population projections from the past 30 years were sourced from State and Territory Government websites and contacts. Estimated Resident Populations to which the projections were compared were created for the geographical regions of the past projections in ArcGIS. The results mostly confirm earlier findings with regards to the relationship between error and length of projection horizon and population size. But there is a wide variety of error patterns. There may be some scope for creating empirically-based prediction intervals from past error patterns, but further research is required.

Sub-state immigration and emigration estimates for Australia

Tom Wilson, Principal Research Fellow, Charles Darwin University
Friday, December 2, 2016 11:05 AM - 11:25 AM

Abstract

Even in statistically advanced countries, estimates of regional and local international migration are often lacking. In Australia, immigration and emigration estimates are regularly published for the States and Territories, but not for finer geographical scales. Some sub-state immigration data are available from the census, but for emigration no equivalent data exist. This paper proposes a method for creating sub-state immigration and emigration estimates for Australia which are consistent with state-level Net Overseas Migration Arrivals and Departures data published by the ABS. International migration flows for the period 2006-11 were estimated for 49 sub-state areas comprising Greater Capital City Statistical Areas and SA4 regions outside the capitals. Use is made of ABS state-level Net Overseas Migration Arrivals and Departures by visa/citizenship category, and detailed sub-state census data. Immigration is simply distributed to sub-state areas on the basis of census immigration flows. The estimation of emigration is more complex; state-level flows by visa/citizenship categories are distributed spatially according to different combinations of census variables. The method is shown to produce plausible estimates of immigration and emigration flows at the sub-state scale. These estimates should prove useful for improving our understanding international migration flows in Australia at the regional scale, and for setting population projection assumptions.

The spatial demography of mass displacements from disasters: The case studies of Fukushima and Chernobyl; the largest peacetime emergency displacements

Dr David Karacsonyi, Visiting Fellow, The Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University

Friday, December 2, 2016 2:00 PM - 2:20 PM

Abstract 

Major disasters can lead to mass displacement, one of the most important demographic consequences of such events both for sending and receiving areas. In the case of disasters with long-term environmental impacts, demographic shifts may be permanent. Mass displacements after the nuclear meltdowns at Chernobyl in 1986 and more recently Fukushima in 2011 featured significant permanent emergency evacuations and changed the demographic profiles of entire regions.

Displacement generates new challenges: relationships, networks and social capital needs to be rebuilt within the community; conflicts can occur within the receiving settlement. Thus, mass displacement can easily became a secondary disaster.

In this presentation, we present the demographic impacts resulting from the Chernobyl and Fukushima-affected regions. The core analysis was by Geographic Information Systems based on detailed spatial units using census data. For a more detailed insight we also used mobile phone location data in case of Fukushima and population registration microdata collected by local authorities after Chernobyl. We focus on the spatial aspects of permanent resettlement as it has significant consequences for community futures for the entire regions.

One size most certainly does not fit all: Estimating disability numbers in the NT for the rollout of the NDIS

Dr Andrew Taylor, Senior Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University
Friday, December 2, 2016 2:00 PM - 2:20 PM

Abstract 

In introducing the National Disability Insurance Scheme, the Productivity Commission derived national estimates of the numbers of disabled people meeting the Scheme’s criteria using data from the 2009 Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers. Subsequently, the Australian Government Actuary derived State and Territory estimates from these. Jurisdictional estimates were extremely important because they are used to determine funding for jurisdictions for regional NDIS trials around the country. This research explored the quality and reliability of these estimates for the Territory. Our results demonstrated that the Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers, while being well suited to deriving national NDIS eligible’ population estimates, is demonstrably unsuitable for deriving NT NDIS estimates. Two sets of data, each a combination of two other ABS datasets, were found to be suitable alternatives for this estimation task. Neither of these datasets is fit-for-purpose on its own but suitable estimates can be derived from the two sets together. In this talk we outline the methods and results from this exploration of alternative estimates to highlight definitional, data, estimation and policy issues associated with estimating disability numbers for the rollout and evaluation of the NDIS scheme.

Poster Presentation      

Visualising the demographic components of change shaping State and Territory population age structures

Dec 1, 2016, 12:30 PM - 1:30 PM

Presenting Author: Tom Wilson

Affiliations: Charles Darwin University

Demography North

A Snapshot of Current Population Issues in the Northern Territory

A Snapshot of Current Population Issues in the Northern Territory

Dr. Andrew Taylor
Dr. Tom Wilson

Research Aim:

The Territory (NT) is at a critical juncture; facing low rates of population growth fuelled by large net interstate migration losses. In the longer term, some major demographic shifts are occurring, with implications for policy and planning. Our findings in this brief were presented at the ‘Northern Population Matters’ symposium, held in Darwin in August 2016. Presentations from the symposium can be viewed on our demographyNorth1 blog page with charts and graphs available for use with appropriate attribution.

See the full research brief at: http://www.cdu.edu.au/northern-institute/ni-research-briefs

KEY FINDINGS

• The Territory is currently in a period of relatively low population growth which is diminishing our share of the national population.
• A persisting deficit of women is evident across all age groups above 15 years, and particularly amongst those aged 60 years and over.
• Low growth is being driven by sustained net negative interstate migration which is a result of the following factors:
• The ‘non-arrivals’ of women and young families with children;
• declines in the arrivals of those aged 20-39 years;
• smaller increases to departures in many age groups, especially 40-59 years; and
• migration losses are most evident from the Darwin Suburbs, Alice Springs and East Arnhem regions;
• We are no longer competing well enough to attract the same proportions of out-migrants from most States and Territories, with South Australia and Victoria standing out in terms of the loss of ‘market share’.
• Our population is ageing through large growth in the 65 years and over population, however, the proportion of the population aged 65 plus remains below Australia;
• Indigenous population growth continues at a steady pace, while non-Indigenous growth rates are far more volatile.
• Population immobility is relatively low in the Territory, and lowest in Darwin City and Darwin’s northern suburbs.
• Opportunities exist to address current population issues through reducing the gender imbalance and understanding how we can be more competitive in the interstate migration ‘market’ through research.

Northern Territory arrivers and departers, 2005-2015

Demography North

Our new book has just been released - Settlements at the Edge

Settlements at the Edge:

Remote Human Settlements in Developed Nations

 New Horizons in Regional Science series

Edited by Andrew Taylor, Senior Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University, Dean B. Carson, Professor, Charles Darwin University and Flinders University, Australia, Umeå University and Centre for Rural Medicine, Sweden, Prescott C. Ensign, Dobson Professor of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Lazaridis School of Business and Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Canada, Lee Huskey, Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of Alaska Anchorage, US, Rasmus Ole Rasmussen, Senior Research Fellow, Nordregio – Nordic Centre for Spatial Development and Nordic Council of Ministers, Stockholm, Sweden, Gertrude Saxinger, Assistant Professor, University of Vienna, Austria and Adjunct Researcher, Yukon College, Canada

 Settlements at the Edge examines the evolution, characteristics, functions and shifting economic basis of settlements in sparsely populated areas of developed nations. With a focus on demographic change, the book features theoretical and applied cases which explore the interface between demography, economy, well-being and the environment. This book offers a comprehensive and insightful knowledge base for understanding the role of population in shaping the development and histories of northern sparsely populated areas of developed nations including Alaska (USA), Australia, Canada, Greenland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, Finland and other nations with territories within the Arctic Circle.

In the past, many remote settlements were important bases for opening up vast areas for resource extraction, working as strategic centres and as national representations of the conquering of frontiers. With increased contemporary interest from governments, policy makers, multinational companies and other stakeholders, this book explores the importance of understanding relationships between settlement populations and the economy at the local level. It features international and expert contributors who present insightful case studies on the role of human geography – primarily population issues – in shaping the past, present and future of settlements in remote areas. They also provide analysis of opportunities and challenges for northern settlements and the effects of climate change, resource futures and tourism. A chapter on the issues of populating future space settlements highlights that many issues for settlement change and functions in isolated and remote spatial realms are universal.

This book will appeal to those interested in the past, present and future importance of settlements ‘at the edge’ of developed nations as well as to those working in policy and programme contexts. College students enrolled in courses such as demography, population studies, human studies, regional development, social policy and/or economics will find value in this book as well.

The hard copy book can be purchased from: http://www.e-elgar.com/shop/settlements-at-the-edge

The official online ebook version from: http://www.elgaronline.com/abstract/9781784711955.xml

Demography North