Northern Institute researchers to present at 2016 Australian Population Association Conference

The Australian Population Association (APA) presents the 18th Biennial National Conference between Tuesday 29 November and Friday 2 December 2016, Mecure Sydney.

For full details of the conference, the program and registration details see: https://absoluteevents.eventsair.com/QuickEventWebsitePortal/apa2016/web

Northern Institute Researcher Presentations:

Lessons from past substate population projections

Tom Wilson, Principal Research Fellow, Charles Darwin University

Co-Author          Huw Brokensha

Affiliations: Charles Darwin University

Co-Author          Francisco Rowe

Affiliations: University of Liverpool

Wednesday, November 30, 2016 3:00 PM - 3:30 PM

Abstract 

Local and regional population projections are used for a wide variety of planning, policy formulation, and service delivery activities. But not enough is known about the errors of such projections, particularly over the longer-term (20 years or more). Understanding past errors is valuable for both projection producers and users. This paper evaluates the forecast accuracy of past substate population projections published by State and Territory Governments over the last 30 years. It seeks to establish the extent and patterns of forecast error, whether there have been problems with data and methods which could be rectified in future, and whether error patterns are sufficiently reliable to inform prediction intervals for current projections. Population projections from the past 30 years were sourced from State and Territory Government websites and contacts. Estimated Resident Populations to which the projections were compared were created for the geographical regions of the past projections in ArcGIS. The results mostly confirm earlier findings with regards to the relationship between error and length of projection horizon and population size. But there is a wide variety of error patterns. There may be some scope for creating empirically-based prediction intervals from past error patterns, but further research is required.

Sub-state immigration and emigration estimates for Australia

Tom Wilson, Principal Research Fellow, Charles Darwin University
Friday, December 2, 2016 11:05 AM - 11:25 AM

Abstract

Even in statistically advanced countries, estimates of regional and local international migration are often lacking. In Australia, immigration and emigration estimates are regularly published for the States and Territories, but not for finer geographical scales. Some sub-state immigration data are available from the census, but for emigration no equivalent data exist. This paper proposes a method for creating sub-state immigration and emigration estimates for Australia which are consistent with state-level Net Overseas Migration Arrivals and Departures data published by the ABS. International migration flows for the period 2006-11 were estimated for 49 sub-state areas comprising Greater Capital City Statistical Areas and SA4 regions outside the capitals. Use is made of ABS state-level Net Overseas Migration Arrivals and Departures by visa/citizenship category, and detailed sub-state census data. Immigration is simply distributed to sub-state areas on the basis of census immigration flows. The estimation of emigration is more complex; state-level flows by visa/citizenship categories are distributed spatially according to different combinations of census variables. The method is shown to produce plausible estimates of immigration and emigration flows at the sub-state scale. These estimates should prove useful for improving our understanding international migration flows in Australia at the regional scale, and for setting population projection assumptions.

The spatial demography of mass displacements from disasters: The case studies of Fukushima and Chernobyl; the largest peacetime emergency displacements

Dr David Karacsonyi, Visiting Fellow, The Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University

Friday, December 2, 2016 2:00 PM - 2:20 PM

Abstract 

Major disasters can lead to mass displacement, one of the most important demographic consequences of such events both for sending and receiving areas. In the case of disasters with long-term environmental impacts, demographic shifts may be permanent. Mass displacements after the nuclear meltdowns at Chernobyl in 1986 and more recently Fukushima in 2011 featured significant permanent emergency evacuations and changed the demographic profiles of entire regions.

Displacement generates new challenges: relationships, networks and social capital needs to be rebuilt within the community; conflicts can occur within the receiving settlement. Thus, mass displacement can easily became a secondary disaster.

In this presentation, we present the demographic impacts resulting from the Chernobyl and Fukushima-affected regions. The core analysis was by Geographic Information Systems based on detailed spatial units using census data. For a more detailed insight we also used mobile phone location data in case of Fukushima and population registration microdata collected by local authorities after Chernobyl. We focus on the spatial aspects of permanent resettlement as it has significant consequences for community futures for the entire regions.

One size most certainly does not fit all: Estimating disability numbers in the NT for the rollout of the NDIS

Dr Andrew Taylor, Senior Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University
Friday, December 2, 2016 2:00 PM - 2:20 PM

Abstract 

In introducing the National Disability Insurance Scheme, the Productivity Commission derived national estimates of the numbers of disabled people meeting the Scheme’s criteria using data from the 2009 Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers. Subsequently, the Australian Government Actuary derived State and Territory estimates from these. Jurisdictional estimates were extremely important because they are used to determine funding for jurisdictions for regional NDIS trials around the country. This research explored the quality and reliability of these estimates for the Territory. Our results demonstrated that the Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers, while being well suited to deriving national NDIS eligible’ population estimates, is demonstrably unsuitable for deriving NT NDIS estimates. Two sets of data, each a combination of two other ABS datasets, were found to be suitable alternatives for this estimation task. Neither of these datasets is fit-for-purpose on its own but suitable estimates can be derived from the two sets together. In this talk we outline the methods and results from this exploration of alternative estimates to highlight definitional, data, estimation and policy issues associated with estimating disability numbers for the rollout and evaluation of the NDIS scheme.

Poster Presentation      

Visualising the demographic components of change shaping State and Territory population age structures

Dec 1, 2016, 12:30 PM - 1:30 PM

Presenting Author: Tom Wilson

Affiliations: Charles Darwin University

Demography North