Workforce Ageing in the Territory: The costs of doing nothing

Inclusion and Diversity Human Resource Forum

Dr Andrew Taylor

Today Andrew Taylor spoke at the Inclusion and Diversity Human Resource forum at CDU’s Waterfront Campus. His analysis shows the NT Public Service workforce is much older than the general population and older than other  State and Territory government workforces. The NT workforce, unlike the NT population generally, has significantly more females than males, at 61% females. This means workforce ageing transitioning policies and initiatives must take into account our geographic workforce diversity and gender balance in the workforce. Andrew’s presentation is below.

 

Demography North

Boosting population growth in the Northern Territory

Boosting population growth in the Northern Territory

Dr Tom Wilson

Background

In late 2016 and early 2017 the Northern Territory Government hosted a number of economic summits in order to help formulate a long-term economic development plan for the Territory. Recently it released for comment a draft Economic Development Framework document containing a wide range of potential economic strategies. Population is mentioned several times in the draft framework, but I argue that it should be given greater prominence and the development framework be adapted to become a combined economic and population development policy.

Population growth is integral to growing the Territory’s economy. A larger population means more workers, and more consumers. Currently the Territory is home to just 1% of Australia’s resident population, and population growth for the last few years has been well below the national average. Low population growth affects demand for all those industries providing goods and services to the local population, and saps business confidence. As the Territory loses national population share, it loses share of the GST distribution (which may reduce the size of the public service, a major employer) and risks losing one of its two seats in the House of Representatives.

Since 2013 population growth has been sustained by natural change (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration (immigration minus emigration). These two factors have only just offset net interstate migration losses (the result of about 14,000 people moving from the rest of Australia to the Territory each year, and about 17,000 going in the opposite direction).

It seems unlikely that the Territory will experience large net gains of people from the major cities of the south in the future. It has a small labour market, high living costs, and a climate that does not appeal to all. Importantly, moving to the Territory takes many people a long way from established networks of family and friends.

Could governments influence fertility and mortality rates instead? Experience shows that most government attempts to raise fertility are unsuccessful, and efforts to reduce mortality through medical research and public health programs – especially for the Indigenous population – have long been underway, and are continuing.

The key to population growth in the Territory is immigration, and retaining many of those immigrants in the long run. I suggest three key ways in which the Northern Territory could boost its population through immigration.

More overseas students

First, the Territory should aim to substantially increase its number of overseas students. This is not a new idea, but it is worth reiterating. According to the Department of Education and Training, there were 307,000 international enrolments in higher education in 2016 across Australia. In the Northern Territory there were 1,400 – just under 0.5% of the national total. There are many more undertaking VET and English language courses.

There should be considerable potential to increase students from Indonesia and other neighbouring South East Asian countries. Darwin offers a welcoming multicultural environment, climate similarities with many Asian countries, and a shorter flight home. While many return home on completion of their studies, some overseas students transfer to other visas and contribute valuable skills to the Australian workforce. Instead of having a below-population share of Australia’s overseas students, the Territory could aim for a greater share, say 2%. The boost to the Territory’s economy would also be considerable.

Increased humanitarian intake

Second, the Territory could accept a greater share of the nation’s humanitarian migration intake. ABS statistics show that over the most recent five years of data there were about 10,000 immigrants per year in the “Special eligibility and humanitarian” category nationally, but an average of only about 60 for the Territory. If the Territory were to aim for an above-population share of Australia’s humanitarian intake, such as 2%, the absolute numbers would still be quite small but not insignificant relative to the Territory’s recent population growth.

Offer a new home to Pacific islanders facing inundation

Third, the Territory and Commonwealth governments could agree to create a special regional migration scheme to offer a new home for Pacific islanders whose homelands are being affected by rising sea levels. Countries such as the Marshall Islands, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tonga, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Cook Islands are particularly vulnerable to sea level rises according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The scheme would have to be restricted to the Territory only to be successful. If immigration of entire extended families occurred, the presence of family networks might reduce the rate of subsequent onwards interstate migration to other parts of Australia.

Doubtless there would legal, political and practical obstacles to navigate for this migration scheme to be implemented. And it would probably begin as a small-scale trial. But it potentially offers a significant increase to the Territory’s population with resulting benefits for the economy. At the same time Australia, and the Northern Territory, would be making an important contribution as a decent global citizen.

Demography North

Territory Population Update

Dr Tom Wilson

Summary

Population figures just published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that the total Estimated Resident Population of the Northern Territory reached 245,657 at the end of September 2016, an increase of 812 over one year earlier. This represents a growth rate of 0.3%. The population of 245,657 gives the Territory a 1.0% share of the national population of 24,220,192.

The graph below illustrates how the Territory’s population has changed over the last few years. Following strong increases in 2012 and early 2013, population growth has been limited over the most recent years.

Note: Population statistics are for the end of each month shown

Source: ABS

The bar chart below shows how the Territory’s population growth rate over the year to 30th September 2016 compares with that of the other States and Territories. Relative to other jurisdictions, the Territory’s population growth rate is quite low.

Source: ABS

What factors are driving population change in the Territory?

Population change in the Territory is the result of several demographic processes. These are:

• births
• deaths
• in-migration from interstate
• out-migration to interstate
• immigration from overseas
• emigration to overseas.

These six factors are often summarised as:

• natural change (births minus deaths)
• net interstate migration (in-migration from interstate minus out-migration to interstate)
• net overseas migration (immigration minus emigration).

The diagram below shows how these factors of population change affected population growth over the year to 30th September 2016. Processes which remove people from the Territory are shown in red; those which add people to the population are shown in green.

Over the year to 30th September 2016 there were 3,950 births and 1,090 deaths to Territory residents, giving natural change of 2,860. There were an estimated 14,651 in-migration moves to the Territory from interstate, while there were 17,455 out-migrations to other parts of Australia. Net interstate migration was -2,804. The Territory’s population experienced immigration of 5,641 from overseas, while emigration to other countries was 4,885. Net overseas migration was 756. Natural change, plus net interstate migration, plus net overseas migration equals total population change, which was 812. Although overall population change was modest, the churn of population (numbers of people being added and removed from the population) was substantial. This is a long-established characteristic of the Territory’s demography.

Factors affecting population change in the Territory over the year ending 30th September 2016

Source: calculated from ABS data

Factors affecting population change in recent years

Much of the volatility in the Territory’s population growth over the years is due to fluctuations in migration, which in part reflects fluctuations in the Territory’s economy. The graph below shows how natural change, net interstate migration, and net overseas migration have varied on a quarterly basis in recent years. The slow growth of the Territory’s population over the last few years is due to net interstate migration losses and lower levels of net overseas migration.

Note: Periods are quarters of the year; e.g. “Qtr 1 2016” refers to the first quarter of 2016

Source: ABS

________________________________

Author

Dr Tom Wilson, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University.

Data sources

All data are derived from the Australian Bureau of Statistics bulletin Australian Demographic Statistics (released quarterly and containing data up to a date six months prior to publication) and the online data service ABS.Stat. Be aware that these statistics are estimates, not precise values.

Interested in finding out more about the Territory’s population?

See the webpage of the Demography & Growth Planning team at the Northern Institute, and our blog, demographyNorth.

Demography North

Introduction to Demography - one day course

What the course is about

This course provides a gentle introduction to demography – the study of population – with a particular emphasis on understanding Australian demographic change. No prior knowledge of demography is assumed, and the emphasis of the course is on demographic ideas and trends rather than statistics.

The course will tackle questions such as:
• How much population ageing is occurring in Australia, and should we be worried?
• What demographic factors are causing state and territory population growth?
• Is life expectancy still increasing?
• How does population affect political representation in Australia?
• What demographic changes are occurring in our inner cities?
• Are household sizes increasing?
• What is the future of Australia’s population?
• Where can I find demographic data?

Who the course is for

The course has been designed for analysts, planners, policy officers, managers, and postgraduate students who would find a basic knowledge of demography useful in their work. It should also be of value to others with an interest in how and why Australia’s population is changing.

Details

Date:             Friday 5th May 2017, 10:00 am – 4:30 pm.

Venue:          Savannah Room, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University. 

                     The room is on level 2 in building Yellow no. 1. 

                     Both paid and free parking is available nearby – see the campus map.

Presenters:    Dr Tom Wilson and Mr Huw Brokensha.

Cost:             $599 per person including GST, or $499 including GST for full-time students.

Booking:      Please book online at https://www.cdu.edu.au/northern-institute/events/1day-introduction-to-demography-2017

Catering:      Morning tea, lunch, and afternoon tea are provided.

Materials:     Participants receive a folder of course notes and a certificate of attendance.

Demography North

Heading north, staying north?

The increasing importance of international migrants to northern and remote Australia

Dr Andrew Taylor

Demography North researcher Dr Andrew Taylor presented on the increasing importance of international migrants to northern and remote Australia at the Western Regional Science Association conference in Santa Fe, New Mexico last month. 

Dr Taylor meets in Santa Fe with our long-term colleagues Klaus Geog Hansen, Acting Director of the Department of Economic Planning in the Greenland Government’s Ministry of Finance, and Rasmus Ole Rasmussen from the Nordic Centre for Spatial Research (NORDREGIO, but soon to be with South Greenland Municipality of Kujalleq)

There are many similarities to parts of the Territory in the painted desert areas including the desert landscape interspersed with many small American Indian communities

Demography North

Demography North are excited to introduce a new population projections product

RePPP (Regional Population Projection Program)

Dr Tom Wilson

 RePPP (Regional Population Projection Program) is an Excel-based program which produces subnational population projections using a state-of-the-art cohort-component model. It generates projections by sex and five year age group for between 2 and 50 subnational regions over a projection horizon of between 5 and 50 years. The program is suitable for regions varying in size from SA2 areas to States and Territories. Click here for full details including user guide and software requirements. 

Key features

• projects populations by sex and five year age group up to age 85+
• handles between 2 and 50 subnational regions
• region size can vary from SA2 areas to States / Territories
• projection horizon of between 5 and 50 years
• easy to use Excel interface
• state-of-the-art multi-bi-regional cohort-component projection model
• low input data requirements compared to standard multiregional models
• separation of ‘headline’ projection assumptions (e.g. TFR, life expectancy at birth) from age profiles to facilitate easier assumption-setting and scenario creation
• option to constrain age-sex projections to independent population totals
• fast run time
• validation routine to check the validity of input data
• separate Excel output files containing various tables and graphs for each region
• several derived projection variables output (median age, % population by broad age group, population growth rates, components of change, population growth index, sex ratios by age)
• example input data and projections supplied
• User Guide with step-by-step instructions
• assistance with preparing data inputs available on request

Demography North

The growing importance of overseas migration to the Northern Territory (NT) and Northern Australia

Dr. Andrew Taylor

From 2008-2009 onwards, the NT’s interstate migration position has progressively worsened while overseas migration has remained positive and natural increase (the excess of births over deaths) stable as the main contributor to population growth. You can read about the mix of factors changing our population and affecting growth in our research brief “A Snapshot of Current Population Issues in the Northern Territory”.

With overseas migration increasingly determining our growth rate, and at the moment preventing negative growth, it is important that the Territory and Northern Australia more broadly, where the situation is similar in many parts, continues to attract and retain more international migrants. However, northern and remote areas of Australia have long been reported as struggling to do so, with most permanently settling overseas migrants going to urban areas or ‘leaking’ out of the north within a relatively short time.

So let’s assess the current situation for the NT. Below are charts compiled using recent data on permanent migration streams. I’ve compared our share of the national intake for each stream (the attraction indicator) and losses overseas from each stream (retention indicator) to our share of the national population (around one percent as shown by the orange dotted line in the charts). It’s important to note that skilled migration is the most significant stream at around 70% of permanent additions for Australia and higher for the NT. You can explore the rise in importance of skilled migration in our research brief “Are peripheral regions benefiting from national policies aimed at attracting skilled migrants?”

The first chart on attracting overseas migrants suggest the NT has been relatively consistent in maintaining its intake share for temporary skilled (457 visa) and family migrants. However, its share of skilled migrants, while increasing since 2009, has remained well below one percent of the national intake, such that the NT is ‘missing out’ on its share of skilled migrants; a factor which may help explain the high share of temporary skilled migrants on 457 visas who are needed to fill skilled vacancies.

Attracting Economic Migrants

We use a similar comparison to measure retention in the second chart below. It shows the proportion of the national share of migrants leaving for overseas who originated from the NT (comparable data for migration from the NT to within Australia are not available). Success in retaining migrants would be indicated by a lower than one percent share departing from the NT. The data suggest that this is the case for all streams other than family migrants towards the end of the period and temoprary skilled workers during some years in the period from 2003 to 2013. The position with regards to skilled migrants has worsened substantially during the decade with a twofold increase in the share moving overseas, up from 0.4% to 0.8% of the national average.

Can we retain economic migrants?

These indicators suggest we need to have specific initiatives in place to attract and retain overseas migrants to the north. Just having employment may not be enough. Studies in the NT and elsewhere confirm some of the other factors are: employment must match people’s educational backgrounds and skills; families must feel welcome and safe; education quality should be high; and migrants must be able to access suitable housing. With negative population growth a real concern at the moment, overseas migrants should be courted and made to feel very welcome in the NT. There are plenty of overseas examples of initiatives in these areas that we might learn from. For the Territory, the focus of initiatives should be on permanent skilled migrants and their families since their prospective contribution to population and economic growth is largest.

We welcome constructive commentary on our posts. I’ll be publishing a full paper on this topic in the near future so stay tuned to Demography North and our research brief series.

Thanks for reading!

Andrew Taylor
Senior Research Fellow
Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University
andrew.taylor@cdu.edu.au

Demography North

Happy holidays from Demography North

Demography North researchers would like to thank all you readers for taking an interest in the work that we do. What started as a small side-project to help distribute the presentations from our Northern Population Matters symposium #northpopmatters in August 2016 has turned out to be a great way to make our research more accessible.

 We hope that everyone has an enjoyable holiday time over the next few weeks and look forward to sharing more research in 2017.

In the meantime, if you're still searching for a gift or just looking for something to add to your reading list over the holidays check out the recently released 'Settlements at the Edge' book available for purchase online through Edward Elgar.

Settlements at the Edge examines the evolution, characteristics, functions and shifting economic basis of settlements in sparsely populated areas of developed nations. With a focus on demographic change, the book features theoretical and applied cases which explore the interface between demography, economy, well-being and the environment. This book offers a comprehensive and insightful knowledge base for understanding the role of population in shaping the development and histories of northern sparsely populated areas of developed nations including Alaska (USA), Australia, Canada, Greenland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, Finland and other nations with territories within the Arctic Circle.

Demography North

Visualising the demographic components of change

Shaping the age structures of Australian State and Territory populations.

The population pyramid is one of the most popular ways of visualising population age structure. The standard form consists of two rotated histograms of population by age group, with males on the left and females on the right, and the youngest ages at the base and the oldest at the top. This standard population pyramid is often used to summarise the demographic history of a population over the course of the previous century or so. But a key limitation is that it only shows the size of each age-sex group, omitting information on the contributions of different demographic processes which shaped the population’s current age structure. This poster presents a different way of illustrating age structure through components-of-change population pyramids (Wilson, 2016) which show how births, deaths and net migration have shaped the current population age structures of Australian States and Territories.

Components-of-change population pyramids for Australia and its States and Territories

Demography North

Recruit and Retain: Making it Work

Attracting and keeping skilled and professional workers is a challenge shared by ‘norths’ in Australia, Europe and north America. The European Union, through its Northern Periphery and Arctic Programme, has funded a consortium of government and academic organisations in Sweden, Scotland, Iceland, Norway and Canada to implement strategies designed to improve recruitment and retention. The Recruit and Retain: Making it Work project will run until the end of 2018. 

Professor Dean Carson

Professor Dean Carson, from the Northern Institute, has been engaged to lead the evaluation work package within the project. At one level, the evaluation approach is quite simple – did the project partners have better recruitment and retention outcomes (reduced turnover, improved ease of attracting new staff) after implementation of the strategies? However, the evaluation is also looking at the spatial and temporal contexts of performance – what has been the history of recruitment and retention in the various project locations and how might conditions outside of the project impact on performance? The evaluation model will be made available to any ‘northern’ organisation to test their own performance. This project continues to build on work we have done in the Northern Territory over the past decade, with a focus on recruitment and retention of nurses, doctors, teachers, dentists, accountants, and engineers amongst others. You can follow the progress of the European project at https://www.facebook.com/rrmakingitwork/.

Demography North

Going North...

When do people choose to move to the Northern Territory - A historical summary

Demography North

The Territory’s Population: Research insights on current and future changes

The Territory’s Population: Research insights on current and future changes

A Demography and Growth Planning 

research seminar

Wednesday 26 October
Charles Darwin Centre, Darwin

Researchers (L-R): Huw Brokensha; Andrew Taylor; Tom Wilson; Paul Peters; Dean Carson; Lisbeth Harbo

Seminar overview

The Territory’s population continues to change in a dynamic fashion with pre-election attention given to finding ways to address our volatile and spatially disparate rates of growth. After exceeding 2.5% p.a. growth in 2007-2010, growth has stagnated and we are losing national population share. Importantly, recent changes in compositions and sources of migration flows will have long-term demographic and economic implications for the Territory. In this seminar we provide research insights on the causes and consequences of current and likely future changes in the Territory’s population. This seminar draws on our national and international work program. It includes insights from three international guest speakers engaged in addressing population issues in Canada and the north of Europe through applied research. Our national work on developing robust and accurate population projection models emphasises the need to understand our future demography for planning, and equally how difficult this task is.

Presentations

1. Andrew Taylor (Northern Institute) – Introduction and three key population issues for the Territory 

2. Dean Carson (Northern Institute and international adjunct) – Population change in sparsely populated areas: International comparisons 

3. Huw Brokensha (Northern Institute) – Exploring the accuracy of sub-national population forecasts 

4. Paul Peters (University of New Brunswick, Canada) – Agent Based Demographic Modelling for Canadian populations 

5. Tom Wilson (Northern Institute) – Scenarios of the NTs future population

6. Lisbeth Harbo (Nordic Centre for Spatial Development, Sweden) – Change and challenges for small settlements in the north 

Demography North

Settlements at the Edge book launch

BOOK LAUNCH

Please join us to celebrate the launch of ‘Settlements at the Edge’ with a delicious morning tea at the beautiful Northern Editions gallery, ground floor of the CDU Waterfront campus.  The launch includes a chaired panel session at which editors and authors will discuss or debate key themes in the book. Attendees are encouraged to ask questions and participate in discussions.

About the book:

Settlements at the Edge examines the evolution, characteristics, functions and shifting economic basis of settlements in sparsely populated areas of developed nations. With a focus on demographic change, the book features theoretical and applied cases which explore the interface between demography, economy, well-being and the environment.

Edited by Northern Institute researchers Andrew Taylor & Dean Carson + Prescott C. Ensign, Lee Huskey, Rasmus Ole Rasmussen, Gertrude Saxinger.

DATE:             Thursday 27 October 2016

TIME:               10.30am – 12 noon

VENUE:            CDU Waterfront Campus

                        21 Kitchener Drive, Darwin

RSVP:               www.cdu.edu.au/northern-institute or 8946 7468 (for catering/seating purposes)

Visit event page https://www.cdu.edu.au/northern-institute/Settlements-at-the-Edge

PLEASE SHARE - FREE EVENT – OPEN TO THE PUBLIC – STAFF & STUDENTS WELCOME – PLEASE JOIN US 

Demography North

Northern Institute researchers to present at 2016 Australian Population Association Conference

The Australian Population Association (APA) presents the 18th Biennial National Conference between Tuesday 29 November and Friday 2 December 2016, Mecure Sydney.

For full details of the conference, the program and registration details see: https://absoluteevents.eventsair.com/QuickEventWebsitePortal/apa2016/web

Northern Institute Researcher Presentations:

Lessons from past substate population projections

Tom Wilson, Principal Research Fellow, Charles Darwin University

Co-Author          Huw Brokensha

Affiliations: Charles Darwin University

Co-Author          Francisco Rowe

Affiliations: University of Liverpool

Wednesday, November 30, 2016 3:00 PM - 3:30 PM

Abstract 

Local and regional population projections are used for a wide variety of planning, policy formulation, and service delivery activities. But not enough is known about the errors of such projections, particularly over the longer-term (20 years or more). Understanding past errors is valuable for both projection producers and users. This paper evaluates the forecast accuracy of past substate population projections published by State and Territory Governments over the last 30 years. It seeks to establish the extent and patterns of forecast error, whether there have been problems with data and methods which could be rectified in future, and whether error patterns are sufficiently reliable to inform prediction intervals for current projections. Population projections from the past 30 years were sourced from State and Territory Government websites and contacts. Estimated Resident Populations to which the projections were compared were created for the geographical regions of the past projections in ArcGIS. The results mostly confirm earlier findings with regards to the relationship between error and length of projection horizon and population size. But there is a wide variety of error patterns. There may be some scope for creating empirically-based prediction intervals from past error patterns, but further research is required.

Sub-state immigration and emigration estimates for Australia

Tom Wilson, Principal Research Fellow, Charles Darwin University
Friday, December 2, 2016 11:05 AM - 11:25 AM

Abstract

Even in statistically advanced countries, estimates of regional and local international migration are often lacking. In Australia, immigration and emigration estimates are regularly published for the States and Territories, but not for finer geographical scales. Some sub-state immigration data are available from the census, but for emigration no equivalent data exist. This paper proposes a method for creating sub-state immigration and emigration estimates for Australia which are consistent with state-level Net Overseas Migration Arrivals and Departures data published by the ABS. International migration flows for the period 2006-11 were estimated for 49 sub-state areas comprising Greater Capital City Statistical Areas and SA4 regions outside the capitals. Use is made of ABS state-level Net Overseas Migration Arrivals and Departures by visa/citizenship category, and detailed sub-state census data. Immigration is simply distributed to sub-state areas on the basis of census immigration flows. The estimation of emigration is more complex; state-level flows by visa/citizenship categories are distributed spatially according to different combinations of census variables. The method is shown to produce plausible estimates of immigration and emigration flows at the sub-state scale. These estimates should prove useful for improving our understanding international migration flows in Australia at the regional scale, and for setting population projection assumptions.

The spatial demography of mass displacements from disasters: The case studies of Fukushima and Chernobyl; the largest peacetime emergency displacements

Dr David Karacsonyi, Visiting Fellow, The Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University

Friday, December 2, 2016 2:00 PM - 2:20 PM

Abstract 

Major disasters can lead to mass displacement, one of the most important demographic consequences of such events both for sending and receiving areas. In the case of disasters with long-term environmental impacts, demographic shifts may be permanent. Mass displacements after the nuclear meltdowns at Chernobyl in 1986 and more recently Fukushima in 2011 featured significant permanent emergency evacuations and changed the demographic profiles of entire regions.

Displacement generates new challenges: relationships, networks and social capital needs to be rebuilt within the community; conflicts can occur within the receiving settlement. Thus, mass displacement can easily became a secondary disaster.

In this presentation, we present the demographic impacts resulting from the Chernobyl and Fukushima-affected regions. The core analysis was by Geographic Information Systems based on detailed spatial units using census data. For a more detailed insight we also used mobile phone location data in case of Fukushima and population registration microdata collected by local authorities after Chernobyl. We focus on the spatial aspects of permanent resettlement as it has significant consequences for community futures for the entire regions.

One size most certainly does not fit all: Estimating disability numbers in the NT for the rollout of the NDIS

Dr Andrew Taylor, Senior Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University
Friday, December 2, 2016 2:00 PM - 2:20 PM

Abstract 

In introducing the National Disability Insurance Scheme, the Productivity Commission derived national estimates of the numbers of disabled people meeting the Scheme’s criteria using data from the 2009 Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers. Subsequently, the Australian Government Actuary derived State and Territory estimates from these. Jurisdictional estimates were extremely important because they are used to determine funding for jurisdictions for regional NDIS trials around the country. This research explored the quality and reliability of these estimates for the Territory. Our results demonstrated that the Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers, while being well suited to deriving national NDIS eligible’ population estimates, is demonstrably unsuitable for deriving NT NDIS estimates. Two sets of data, each a combination of two other ABS datasets, were found to be suitable alternatives for this estimation task. Neither of these datasets is fit-for-purpose on its own but suitable estimates can be derived from the two sets together. In this talk we outline the methods and results from this exploration of alternative estimates to highlight definitional, data, estimation and policy issues associated with estimating disability numbers for the rollout and evaluation of the NDIS scheme.

Poster Presentation      

Visualising the demographic components of change shaping State and Territory population age structures

Dec 1, 2016, 12:30 PM - 1:30 PM

Presenting Author: Tom Wilson

Affiliations: Charles Darwin University

Demography North

A Snapshot of Current Population Issues in the Northern Territory

A Snapshot of Current Population Issues in the Northern Territory

Dr. Andrew Taylor
Dr. Tom Wilson

Research Aim:

The Territory (NT) is at a critical juncture; facing low rates of population growth fuelled by large net interstate migration losses. In the longer term, some major demographic shifts are occurring, with implications for policy and planning. Our findings in this brief were presented at the ‘Northern Population Matters’ symposium, held in Darwin in August 2016. Presentations from the symposium can be viewed on our demographyNorth1 blog page with charts and graphs available for use with appropriate attribution.

See the full research brief at: http://www.cdu.edu.au/northern-institute/ni-research-briefs

KEY FINDINGS

• The Territory is currently in a period of relatively low population growth which is diminishing our share of the national population.
• A persisting deficit of women is evident across all age groups above 15 years, and particularly amongst those aged 60 years and over.
• Low growth is being driven by sustained net negative interstate migration which is a result of the following factors:
• The ‘non-arrivals’ of women and young families with children;
• declines in the arrivals of those aged 20-39 years;
• smaller increases to departures in many age groups, especially 40-59 years; and
• migration losses are most evident from the Darwin Suburbs, Alice Springs and East Arnhem regions;
• We are no longer competing well enough to attract the same proportions of out-migrants from most States and Territories, with South Australia and Victoria standing out in terms of the loss of ‘market share’.
• Our population is ageing through large growth in the 65 years and over population, however, the proportion of the population aged 65 plus remains below Australia;
• Indigenous population growth continues at a steady pace, while non-Indigenous growth rates are far more volatile.
• Population immobility is relatively low in the Territory, and lowest in Darwin City and Darwin’s northern suburbs.
• Opportunities exist to address current population issues through reducing the gender imbalance and understanding how we can be more competitive in the interstate migration ‘market’ through research.

Northern Territory arrivers and departers, 2005-2015

Demography North